中国人口_人力资本变化趋势中国人口_人力资本变化趋势.pdf

2007 13 1 M ARKET DEM OGRAPH IC ANALYS IS V o l. 13 N o. 1 2007 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 郑晓瑛 , 陈功 , 庞丽华 , 曹桂英 , 任强 , 刘玉博 , 张蕾, 纪颖 ( 1 , 100871; 2, : 利用多状态人口预测模型, 2000 年人口普查为基础数据, 在对数据进行评估和修订的基础上, 综合相关研究成果对未来生育水平死亡水平人口迁移和教育转换等参数进行估计, 预测了 2000 年到 20 30 年人口规模的变化, 对未来人口的年龄结构特别是老龄化和未来人口和劳动年龄人口的人力资本 进行了预测, 并分析了城市化和人口迁移对我国未来人口发展的影响预测结果对我国编制人口规划 制定应对老龄化提高人力资本和合理利用劳动力的有关政策具有重要意义 : ; ; : C924. 2 : A : 1006- 434 6( 2007 0 1- 0001- 11 Fu ture P opu lation and Hum an Cap ital in Ch ina 1 1 1 2 ZHENG X iao-y ing , CHEN G ong , PANG L i-hua , CAO Gu -i y ing , 1 1 1 1 REN Q iang , LIU Y u-bo , ZHANG Lei, JIY ing ( 1 Institute of P opulation R esearch, P eking University, B eij ing 100871, Ch ina; 2 Interna- tional Institutef or App lied ystem A nalysis(IIA A, A ustria) ) Abs tract: Em ployed mu lt-i state m odel and based on the 2000 popu lation censu s, the research evaluated and adjusted the database and estmi a ted the fertility, m o rta lity, netm igrat ion and ed- ucation transfer to project the populat ion size, age structure, urbanizat ion and hum an cap ital o f China in first 3 decades o f tw enty-first century. T he resu lt of the popu lation and hum an cap ital project ion w ill help the governm ent m ake decision on ev idence based, espec ially on population plann ing, socia l insurance, and education etc. K ey w ords: populat ion projection; m igration; hum an cap ita l / , 0( , 2006 1 3 , , , , , ( , 2003; , 2001; , 2003 , ( ,