基于状态检修的电网运行风险评价-电测与仪表.docVIP

基于状态检修的电网运行风险评估 何乐彰1，张忠会1，姚峰2，李玉婷1 (1.南昌大学 信息工程学院，南昌330031；2.河南省电力公司， 郑州450052) 摘要：设备故障率的计算是电网运行风险评估中的关键环节，将基于状态检修的设备故障率算法应用到电网运行风险评估中，在一定程度上提高了设备故障率的准确度、可信度。基于状态检修的电网运行风险评估方法充分考虑了电网运行中存在的不确定性，通过线路过载、变压器过载、过电压、低电压和失负荷五项风险指标较全面地描述电网运行风险水平，且应用了层次分析法计算电网综合风险指标，为对比电网不同运行方式下的风险大小提供了参考依据。通过实际算例分析，验证了基于状态检修的电网运行风险评估方法的有效性。 关键词：状态检修；故障率；风险评估；层次分析法；综合风险 中图分类号：TM 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001-1390（2014）00-0000-00 Risk Assessment on Condition-Based Maintenance n Power Grid HE Le-zhang1, ZHANG Zhong-hui1, YAO Feng2,LI Yu-ting1 (1. School of Information Engineering，Nanchang University，Nanchang 330031，China；2. Electric Power Company of Henan，Zhengzhou 450052，China) Abstract: Calculation of the equipment failure rate is a key point to the risk assessment of power system operation. The condition based mainteinance equipment fault rate algorithm is applied to the risk assessment of power system operation, which will improve the accuracy and reliability of equipment failure rate in a certain extent. The power system operation risk assessment methods based on the condition maintenance take full consideration of the existing uncertainty in power grid operation, and describe the running risk level of the power grid comprehensively through the five risk index including the line overload, transformer overload, over voltage, low voltage and loss of load. The layer analysis method is applied to the calculation of the comprehensive risk index of power network, which provides a reference frame to the comparison of risk under different operating modes of power grid. Through the practical example analysis, this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the power system operation risk assessment method based on condition maintenance. Key words: condition maintenance, failure rate, risk assessment, AHP, integrated risk 0 引 言 电网运行风险评估方法通常有三种：确定性分析方法、概率分析方法和风险评估方法。风险评估方法因能定量地描述事故的可能性及严重性两个重要的风险因素，在近几年得到了国内外研究学者的重点关注。文献[1-2]提出了电网运行风险评估所涉及到的基本概念和重要性；文献[3-4]通过考虑不同条件对电网进行风险评估；文献[5-6]采用单个或多个指标分析电网