贵州农产品价格影响因素分析及预测研究以猪肉价格为例.docVIP

贵州财经学院 在校学生科研项目结题报告 项目名称： 贵州省农产品价格影响因素分析及预测研究---以猪肉价格为例 负 责 人： 董志萍 所在院系： 数学与统计学院 指导老师： 张文专 完成时间： 2011年12月 课题组成员：董志萍（统计学） 印明辉（统计学） 二零壹壹年 科研处 制 目 录 1 绪论······························································1 1.1 研究背景·······················································1 1.2 研究目的·······················································2 1.3 研究现状·······················································2 1.4 研究思路与方法路线·············································3 1.4.1 研究方法····················································3 1.4.1 技术路线····················································3 1.5 研究创新之处以及不足···········································3 1.5.1 研究的创新之处··············································3 1.5.2 研究中存在的不足············································4 2 农产品价格形成机制及影响因素分析（以猪肉价格为例）·················4 2.1 猪肉价格形成机制研究···········································4 2.2 猪肉价格影响因素分析···········································4 2.2.1 市场内部影响因素············································5 2.2.2 市场外部影响因素············································7 2.3 猪肉价格影响因素的测度········································8 2.3.1 变量与样本的选择···········································8 2.3.2 模型形式与估计方法·········································9 2.3.3 估计结果分析···············································9 3 猪肉价格短期预测模型的构建和应用································10 3.1 研究方法以及模型的基本原理···································10 3.1.1 研究方法··················································10 3.1.2 模型的基本原理············································11 3.2 估计步骤·····················································12 3.2.1 利用ADF检验序列及其一阶差分的平稳性······················12 3.2.2 选择模型的滞后阶数········································13 3.2.3 Granger因果检验···········································13 3.2.4 Johansen协整检验及模型的建立·······························14 3.2.5 误差修正模型的构建·········································14 4 研究结论对于贵州省生猪产业以及整个农业发展的现实意义·············14 4.1 研究结论对生猪养殖业的意义···································