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demand forecast of petroleum product consumption in the chinese transportation industry需求预测的石油产品消费在中国运输行业
Energies 2012, 5, 577-598; doi:10.3390/en5030577 OPEN ACCESS energies ISSN 1996-1073 /journal/energies Article Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry 1,2,3, 1 2 3 Jian Chai *, Shubin Wang , Shouyang Wang and Ju’e Guo 1 Shaanxi Normal University, International Business School, Xi’an 710062, China; E-Mail: wangshubin1228@163.com 2 Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; E-Mail: sywang@ 3 The School of Management Xi’an Jiao Tong University, Xi’an 710049, China; E-Mail: guojue@ * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: chaijian0376@126.com; Tel.: +86-29 Fax: +86-29 Received: 29 January 2012; in revised form: 18 February 2012 / Accepted: 23 February 2012 / Published: 1 March 2012 Abstract: In this paper, petroleum product (mainly petrol and diesel) consumption in the transportation sector of China is analyzed. This was based on the Bayesian linear regression theory and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC), establishing a demand-forecast model of petrol and diesel consumption introduced into the analytical framework with explanatory variables of urbanization level, per capita GDP, turnover of passengers (freight) in aggregate (TPA, TFA), and civilian vehicle number (CVN) and explained variables
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