controlling pandemic flu the value of international air travel restrictions控制流感国际航空旅行限制的价值.pdfVIP
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controlling pandemic flu the value of international air travel restrictions控制流感国际航空旅行限制的价值
Controlling Pandemic Flu: The Value of International Air Travel Restrictions 1 2 2 2 3 2 Joshua M. Epstein *, D. Michael Goedecke , Feng Yu , Robert J. Morris , Diane K. Wagener , Georgiy V. Bobashev 1 Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D. C., United States of America, 2 Statistics and Epidemiology, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, United States of America, 3 Statistics and Epidemiology, RTI International, Rockville, Maryland, United States of America Background. Planning for a possible influenza pandemic is an extremely high priority, as social and economic effects of an unmitigated pandemic would be devastating. Mathematical models can be used to explore different scenarios and provide insight into potential costs, benefits, and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under consideration. Methods and Findings. A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model is used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects of travel restrictions and vaccination. Economic costs of intervention are also considered. The distribution of First Passage Times (FPT) to the United States and the numbers of infected persons in metropolitan areas worldwide are studied assuming various times and locations of the initial outbreak. International air travel restrictions alone provide a small delay in FPT to the U.S. When other containment measures are applied at the source in conjunction with travel restrictions, delays could be much longer. If in addition, control measures are instituted worldwide, there is a significant reduction in cases worldwide and specifically in the U.S. However, if travel restrictions are not combined with other measures, local epidemic severity may increase, because restriction-induced
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