biofuels and the future of food competition and complementarities生物燃料和食品的未来竞争和互补性.pdfVIP

Agriculture 2012, 2, 414-435; doi:10.3390/agriculture2040414 OPEN ACCESS agriculture ISSN 2077-0472 /journal/agriculture Article Biofuels and the Future of Food: Competition and Complementarities Simla Tokgoz, Wei Zhang, Siwa Msangi * and Prapti Bhandary International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K Street, Washington, DC 20006, USA; E-Mails: s.tokgoz@ (S.T.); w.zhang@ (W.Z.); p.bhandary@ (P.B.) * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: s.msangi@; Tel.: +1-202-862-5663; Fax: +1-202-467-4439. Received: 14 September 2012; in revised form: 12 November 2012 / Accepted: 19 November 2012 / Published: 11 December 2012 Abstract: In this paper, we draw the key linkages between future biofuels growth on agricultural commodity prices, and highlight some of the key uncertainties over OECD fuel and energy policies, and their implications for global agricultural markets and the world food situation. Our results show some of the implications that biofuels expansion has on crop area expansion in regions where environmental concerns exist over land use change and the possible impacts on the environment. We also point to some promising areas for future research and specify some implications for policy interventions. Keywords: biofuels; agriculture; agricultural markets and trade; food security 1. Introduction As global energy resources become increasingly scarce in the face of growing energy demand for transport fuel and other productive uses, many countries have begun to turn t