unintended consequences of conservation actions managing disease in complex ecosystems意想不到的后果的保护行动管理疾病的复杂生态系统.pdfVIP

Unintended Consequences of Conservation Actions: Managing Disease in Complex Ecosystems ´ 1,2 1,3,4 5 1 Alienor L. M. Chauvenet , Sarah M. Durant , Ray Hilborn , Nathalie Pettorelli * 1 Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, United Kingdom, 2 Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Ascot, United Kingdom, 3 Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute, Arusha, Tanzania, 4 Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, New York, United States of America, 5 School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, United States of America Abstract Infectious diseases are increasingly recognised to be a major threat to biodiversity. Disease management tools such as control of animal movements and vaccination can be used to mitigate the impact and spread of diseases in targeted species. They can reduce the risk of epidemics and in turn the risks of population decline and extinction. However, all species are embedded in communities and interactions between species can be complex, hence increasing the chance of survival of one species can have repercussions on the whole community structure. In this study, we use an example from the Serengeti ecosystem in Tanzania to explore how a vaccination campaign against Canine Distemper Virus (CDV) targeted at conserving the African lion (Panthera leo), could affect the viability of a coexisting threatened species, the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus). Assuming that CDV plays a role in lion regulation, our results suggest that a vaccination programme, if successful, risks destabilising the simple two-species system considered, as simulations show that vaccination interventions could almost double the probability of extinct