sustainability and urban dynamics assessing future impacts on ecosystem services可持续发展和城市动态评估未来对生态系统服务的影响.pdfVIP

Sustainability 2009, 1, 346-362; doi:10.3390/su1030346 OPEN ACCESS sustainability ISSN 2071-1050 /journal/sustainability Article Sustainability and Urban Dynamics: Assessing Future Impacts on Ecosystem Services 1, 2 Brian Deal * and Varkki Pallathucheril 1 University of Illinois/Department of Urban and Regional Planning, 611 Taft Dr, Champaign, IL 61820, USA 2 American University of Sharjah, School of Architecture and Design, American University of Sharjah, P.O. Box 26666, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates; E-Mail: vpallathucheril@ * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: deal@; Tel.: +1-217-333-1911 Received: 22 May 2009 / Accepted: 8 July 2009 / Published: 22 July 2009 __________________________________________________________________________________ Abstract: Sustainable management of a region’s critical and valued ecosystem resources requires an understanding about how these resource systems might function into the future. In urbanized areas, this requires the ability to frame the role of resources within the context of urban dynamics and the implications of policy and investment choices. In this paper we describe a three-step approach to assessing the impact of future urban development on ecosystem services: 1) characterize key ecosystem resources and services, 2) forecast future land-use changes, and 3)