stochastic modeling of empirical time series of childhood infectious diseases data before and after mass vaccination随机建模的经验时间序列儿童传染病大规模疫苗接种前后的数据.pdfVIP

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stochastic modeling of empirical time series of childhood infectious diseases data before and after mass vaccination随机建模的经验时间序列儿童传染病大规模疫苗接种前后的数据.pdf

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stochastic modeling of empirical time series of childhood infectious diseases data before and after mass vaccination随机建模的经验时间序列儿童传染病大规模疫苗接种前后的数据

Emerging Themes in Epidemiology BioMed Central Methodology Open Access Stochastic modeling of empirical time series of childhood infectious diseases data before and after mass vaccination 1,3 1 2 Helen Trottier* , Pierre Philippe and Roch Roy Address: 1Department of Social Preventive Medecine, University of Montréal, Montréal, Canada, 2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Montréal, Montréal, Canada and 3Department of Oncology, Division of Cancer Epidemiology, McGill University, 546 Pine Avenue West, Montréal, Qc., Canada Email: Helen Trottier* - helen.trottier@mcgill.ca; Pierre Philippe - philippp@sympatico.ca; Roch Roy - royr@DMS.umontreal.ca * Corresponding author Published: 08 August 2006 Received: 06 April 2006 Accepted: 08 August 2006 Emerging Themes in Epidemiology 2006, 3:9 doi:10.1186/1742-7622-3-9 This article is available from: /content/3/1/9 © 2006 Trottier et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract The goal of this paper is to analyze the stochastic dynamics of childhood infectious disease time series. We present an univariate time series analysis of pertussis, mumps, measles and rubella based on Box-Jenkins or AutoRegressive Inte