美元与a股关系（A relationship between the dollar and the）.docVIP

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美元与a股关系（A relationship between the dollar and the）.doc

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美元与a股关系（A relationship between the dollar and the）

美元与a股关系（A relationship between the dollar and the） Why is the A stock market becoming a dollar index puppet? Recently, the media issued an article entitled mystery the dollar index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index of the article, the relationship between the stock market and the dollar index are analyzed, the results of the research is that most developing countries including Chinese, stock price and the dollar index showed negative correlation, and negative correlation between such it is long-standing. Among them, St Paul, India and Brazil dollar index of Mumbai index showed a strong negative correlation, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.8, while Chinas Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and US dollar index also showed a strong negative correlation, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient is about 0.6. From the test of causality, the dollar index is cause, and the stock market index of developing countries including China is fruit. In short, as long as the dollar index rises, the A share market will fall; the A market will rise as the dollar index falls. Popularly speaking, the A share market is the puppet of the dollar index. From the authors observation, the above conclusions are accurate and reliable, and the A share market has a strong negative correlation with the dollar index. As to why, what is the mechanism behind it, I think there are several main reasons: First, the dollar indexs strength or weakness will lead to changes in the direction of global capital flows. If the dollar is stronger, international capital will withdraw from developing countries and flow into the United States; while the dollar weakens, international capital flows from the United States to the developing world. This logic holds true. In the short run, in 2008 and September, as the Lehman Corp went bankrupt, the financial crisis worsened, and global capital flowed back into US dollar assets, the yield on US Treasury bonds fell sharply. T