Sinkhole Geomorphology and Hazard （天坑地貌学和危害）.pdfVIP

Sinkhole Geomorphology and Hazard Assessment Andrew C. Katen, M.S. Grand Junction, CO ackaten@ Abstract Sinkholes occur in karst environments around the world and can pose serious threats to life safety, property, and environmental quality. Sinkholes develop in carbonate and evaporite karst settings as either 1) solution structures that settle gradually, or 2) as collapse structures that can develop over millions of years but collapse rapidly and without warning. Throughout their development, karst and sinkhole formation may be influenced by natural factors such as tectonics and climate. Today, accelerated expansion or collapse of sinkholes can result from natural and/or anthropogenic causes. Given the common and widespread occurrence of sinkholes, as well as the potential threats they pose for mankind, hazard management is becoming an increasingly important topic within academia, policy, and industry. Although no standard framework for managing these risks currently exists, the literature reflects growing recognition that a phased approach for addressing sinkhole hazards is most effective. This approach includes three major components: identification, prediction, and mitigation. The identification phase should integrate geological, geophysical, and geomorphological analysis to produce “karst datasets.” These datasets support statistical analysis with the purpose of predicting locations, structure, and evolution of sinkholes, as well as to monitor the effectiveness of mitigation efforts. Proximity and density spatial distribution analyses have been most successful for sinkhole prediction; probability analysis, while less reliable, is valuable for forecasting the most significant conditions for sinkhole formation, as well as how changes in those conditions may change risk levels. I