Bioweapons - Texas AM University–Central Texas：生物武器-德克萨斯农机大学–中央德克萨斯.ppt

Bioweapons Diseases, Detection, and Doctrine I. Guillemin: Points to Remember Three phases in the history of BW Difficulty of effective employment – US/UK difficulties in efficient aerosol dispersion. USSR incidents in Kazakhstan and Sverdlovsk Japanese program backfires (perhaps kills more Japanese soldiers than Chinese!) Nonstate programs numerous but rarely effective: Criticisms of “Dark Winter” scenarios No “Golden Age” of bioweapon use – defenses kept pace with offense. Chemicals more commonly used. Why? I. Guillemin: Points to Remember The Development of BW as WMD Note the US progress in WW II The “Immunity Deal” with Japanese scientists and Cold War Research Bureaucratic politics and the need to match atomic-scale devastation (competition for scarce resources) Arms races “Looking Glass” justifications and overestimation of opponents The surprising unilateral renunciation of Nixon – What explains it? I. Guillemin: Points to Remember Offense-defense overlap Vaccines as keys to offensive BW Project Whitecoat and the misuse of conscientious objectors The dilemma of verification – the weakness of the BWC The Soviet program US resistance to verification Merits and risks of secrecy Responsible/Irresponsible nations distinction and international law II. Supplements to Guillemin Use in World War II The case of Stalingrad… Suspicious outbreak of tularemia at Stalingrad Kenneth Alibek (Soviet weapons scientist) alleges USSR used bioweapons Other scientists believe outbreak was natural 2. Japan’s Unit 731 a. Guillemin lowballs the figures for Chinese deaths. But Langford (Introduction to Weapons of Mass Destruction, 2004, p.142) says 250,000 Chinese killed by Japanese BW, mainly plague. b. A few thousand – 250,000 is a big range. Can we narrow down the effectiveness of the Japanese program? i. Testimony of Hayashi Shigemi (October 7, 1954) In 1943…(we) spread cholera once in Shantung Province... The germ was first dumped into the Wei River, then the dike was destr