AMDAR资料质量分析及对GRAPES系统同化和预报影响王瑞文1叶冬.DOC

AMDAR资料质量分析及对GRAPES系统同化和预报影响 王瑞文1 叶冬2 李莉1 1 中国气象局数值预报中心 2 中国气象局公共气象服务中心 摘 要 为了研究AMDAR(Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay)资料对GRAPES（Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)系统的影响，本文针对从国家气象信息中心实时库检索的业务AMDAR资料，分析了该资料的偏差和标准差等质量特性；利用GRAPES数值预报系统，做了两个月的同化预报循环试验。选取资料和试验的时间是2013年5、6两个月，同化窗口6小时，预报时效7天。结果表明，与背景场该资料的温度要素的平均偏差在0.2 OC，标准差在2 OC，风的平均偏差在0.2米/秒，标准差在3米/秒，偏差基本符合正态分布；AMDAR资料对同化和预报效果均有改善。 关键词： AMDAR GRAPES 资料同化 数值预报 AMDAR Data Quality Analysis and the Impact on Assimilation and Forecast in GRAPES WANG Ruiwen1，YE Dong2，and LI Li1 1 Numerical Weather Prediction Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 2 Public Meteorological Service Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 Abstract In order to research the validity of the AMDAR (Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay) data for the GRAPES（Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) numerical forecast system,AMDAR data from National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) is showed, and the impact on Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) by the AMDAR data is researched.We experiment by use of AMDAR data in GRAPES for two months long time period. The period of the selected datasets and numerical experimentation is in May and Jun of 2013, the assimilation window is 6 hours and the period of validity is 7 days. The bias of the temperature is 0.2 OC, and the standard deviation is 2 OC. The bias of the wind is 0.2 m/s, and the standard deviation is 3 m/s. The AMDAR data error distribution is nearly normal. The results show the better improvement for the assimilation and forecast by using the AMDAR data in GRAPES. Key words AMDAR, GRAPES, Data Assimilation, Numerical Forecast 1 引言 数值天气预报是目前天气预报的主要手段。数值天气预报能力除依赖于模式本身的物理基础外，观测资料的同化也具有十分重要的作用。在常规观测资料中，探空观测是一种精度相对较高对预报有重要影响的资料，但常规探空观测时间间隔过长、空间分布过稀。航空气象数据转发（简称AMDAR）是通过民航班机上的自动观测仪器获得的自动气象报告。AMDAR资料具有高时间分辨率的特点，一定程度弥补了探空观测的不足，对提高数值天气预报效果可起到很好的作用(陶士伟等，2009；Beatrice ,1999; Carla ,2003;