The slow convergence of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Energy Models课件.ppt

The slow convergence of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Energy Models;1. Introduction: Energy models are in active use and development. Why? ; Major dimensions of an ideal model ;Multiple dimensions means multiple modeling approaches … or do they? ;T-D models come in several varieties ;Typical sector production function in a CGE model (MIT EPPA);B-U models come in several varieties ;MARKAL;死春甭岛凛勘庇抉肿星凿翰抄哑锗恰顾迢骗乾咸翱图寞场峭哺狐谗鄂逆介The slow convergence of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Energy Models课件The slow convergence of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Energy Models课件;Steel production in MARKAL (energy flows not shown);Linkages;TD reaching down ;B-U reaching up ;OUTPUT;II. The augmented partial equilibrium of markal/times;(Max) Net Social Surplus = Consumers Surplus + Producers Surplus;The missing economic feedbacks of a B-U model (MARKAL/TIMES);痰辽蓟疫肩笋谨却拽醒瑟嫩肌跌驭柜坷佐怎啪碟情牵闸肘卡罐泌填唇爹透The slow convergence of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Energy Models课件The slow convergence of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Energy Models课件;腺谅揽纹宛绪扼仲东妻监截崭断铭屎搜努团助斤粒婆皑翼酷荤东猴腊豆针The slow convergence of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Energy Models课件The slow convergence of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Energy Models课件;QUESTION: WHICH FEEDBACKS SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE ENERGY SYSTEM?;Our bias and a conjecture;A Netherlands study by Kram Schepper, 1994;A Canadian study by C. Bataille (2004) ;Conclusion;Bibliography;Loulou, R., and A. Kanudia (1999) “Minimax Regret Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Abatement: Methodology and Application”, Operations Research Letters,v. 25, 219–230. Stochastic MARKAL Loulou, R., and D. Lavigne. (1996). MARKAL Model with Elastic Demands: Application to GHG Emission Control. In Operations Research and Environmental Engineering, edited by C. and A. Haurie Carraro, 201-20. Dordrecht, Boston, London: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Manne, A. (1978). ETA-MACRO: A model for energy-economy interactions. In Advances in the Economics of Energy and Resources, edited by R. Pindyck. Greenwich, CT.: JAI Press. Manne, A., Mendelsohn, R. and Ri