人口年龄构与中国房价.docx

目 录摘要1关键词1Abstract1Keysords2一、 绪论21.1引言21.2国内外文献综述21.3人口年龄结构概念3二、我国人口年龄结构变化历程与住宅市场32.1我国人口年龄结构变化历程42.2我国住宅市场42.3我国人口年龄结构对住宅市场的影响5三、人口年龄结构与住宅价格关系的实证分析53.1数据描述53.2模型设定与变量说明63.3估计方法与实证结果7四、完善人口年龄结构与房价关系的对策104.1开放计划生育限制，一定程度上鼓励生育104.2提高居民收入，注重分配的公平性114.3引导商品住宅市场结构，大力促进保障房建设11五、 结语12参考文献13人口年龄结构与中国房价摘要：自从2004年以来我国的房价呈现出快速上涨、幅度较大、范围较广的发展态势，有关专业学者也从各个不一样的角度对其进行研究和分析比如对土地制度、货币制度、投机以及城镇化等均提出对推动我国住宅市场的迅猛发展的各式各样的解释，但是却始终没有一个统一的得到广泛认可的结论。本文试图从人口年龄结构的角度来对房价快速上涨的原因进行研究和解释，和大部分研究文章不同的是本文仅仅是从人口年龄结构的角度分析住房价格背后的人口因素。本文运用1999-2012年的面板数据研究我国人口年龄结构对我国三大经济板块住宅价格产生的影响情况，结果表明人口年龄结构对住宅价格的变化影响程度从东部至西部呈现出逐渐降低的趋势，同时之间呈现负相关的关系；中国经济体制的转型和阶段性的人口政策使得我国老年人口的增加并不会让住宅的价格出现明显的下降，基于以上的分析进而有针对性地提出较为科学合理的完善对策，切实积极稳妥地推进城镇化，更加关注高城镇化的质量已是目前我国推进城镇化工作的重中之重。关键词：人口年龄结构；房价；住宅市场Abstract：Since 2004 China has shown rapid rise in house prices, a big margin, broader development trend, relevant professional scholars from all different angles, such as its research and analysis of the land system, monetary system, as well as urban speculation of all put forward to promote the rapid development of Chinas housing market of many interpretations, but always there is no single widely accepted conclusions. This paper attempts from the perspective of the population age structure to study and explain the reasons for the rapid rise in house prices, and most of the research articles herein are merely different demographic factors behind housing prices from the perspective of the population age structure. This article from 1999 - 2012 Panel Data of Chinas population age structure influence the situation of Chinas three major economic blocks housing prices produced results showed changes in the population age structure impact on housing prices from east to west showing a decreasing trend, while exhibiting negative correlation between; the transformation of Chinas economic system and periodic population policy so as to increase our elderly population does not make housing prices dropped significantly, based on the above analysis th