向量模法及模糊物元模型在南京市水环境承载力评价中的应用.pdf

中国科技论文在线 向量模法与模糊物元模型在南京市水环境 承载力评价中的应用 程卓* （河海大学水文水资源学院，南京 210098） 摘要：水是人类赖以生存的根本,是城市产生和发展的根基，一座城市的水环境状况对城市 公共安全具有很重要的意义，然而近年来突发水环境污染事件频发,城市供水安全等问题也 日益凸显。基于水环境对社会经济和人口的支持能力,综述了水环境承载力的概念。从经济 发展、水资源量及水环境和科学技术水平等角度分析了水环境承载力的主要影响因素并确定 评价的指标体系。应用向量模法和模糊物元模型分析了 2003～2009 年南京市水环境承载 力, 。结果表明 2 种方法得出的结论一致:南京市的水环境承载力水平较低,但呈逐年上升 趋势。为了实现经济发展与水环境保护的协调，一方面可以从长江调水等方式增加水资源量， 另一方面需要加大水功能区治理力度以提升水环境承载力。 关键词：水环境承载力；安全评价；指标体系；向量模法；模糊物元模型 The application of Vector model and fuzzy matter-element model in evaluation of water environment carrying capacity on nanjing city Cheng Zhuo (water hydrology and water resource school,hohai university, NanJing 210098) Abstract: Water is essential for human to survive, and it is the foundation of urban origin and development , Urban water supply security is very important to the city public safety, but in recent years ，issues such as urban water supply security caused by sudden water pollution events are increasing .Based on the Water environment for socio-economic and population supporting capacity， the paper Review the Concept of the capacity of the water environment 。 From economic development, the quantity of water resources, water environment and technology to make analysis main factors of water and environmental carrying capacity and to determine the evaluation index system 。vector norm method and fuzzy Matter-element analysis are applied in the evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity in Nanjing City from 2003 to 2009 。The results show that the conclusions from the three methods are consistent ，The water environmental carrying capacity of Nanjing remained low， but increased year by year 。In order