不要期待新兴经济体迅速复苏 - 副本.docxVIP

??不要期待新兴经济体迅速复苏The emerging market slowdown: don’t expect a quick recovery That big grinding sound in the global economy is the emerging market world shifting down to a lower gear. The stream of news this year suggests that emerging economies are recording their lowest rates of growth since the global financial crisis. 全球经济发出了巨大的摩擦声，这是新兴市场在降低运行档位。今年的一系列消息表明，新兴经济体正在录得自本次全球金融危机以来最低的增长率。 Of course, EMs have weathered slowdowns and even crashes before, and generally come back strongly. More disturbing about the conjuncture is that the difficulty in generating strong growth seems as much structural as it does cyclical, suggesting that expansion will remain modest even if domestic policy is loosened and external conditions become more supportive. The structural weaknesses vary within the EM world, but they add up to a situation where getting growth over the next five years is a much bigger challenge than coping with the headwinds over the next few months. 当然，新兴市场以前也经受过放缓甚至崩盘的考验，而且通常都会强劲复苏。但当前局势更加令人不安的是，强劲增长面临的阻力似乎既是结构性的，又是周期性的。这说明，即便国内政策得到放松、外部环境变得更为有利，增长也仍将是有限的。不同的新兴市场国家面临着不同的结构性问题，但这些问题共同造就了这样一种局面：确保未来5年的增长要远比克服未来几个月的阻力棘手得多。 Real growth is slowing in the EMs. The tracker run by the consultancy Capital Economics (see chart above) suggests that emerging economies are expanding at an annual rate of less than 4 per cent for the first time since 2009, and before that the first time since the 2001 US recession and the Argentine debt default. 新兴市场的实际增长正在放缓。咨询公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)追踪的数据显示（见右图），新兴经济体的年增长率自2009年以来首次低于4%，如果剔除掉2009年，则是自美国2001年的经济衰退和阿根廷债务违约以来首次低于4%。 Neither is this purely a China phenomenon: other big EMs are also struggling to expand. Brazil continues to grapple with above-target inflation and its attempts to display fiscal consolidation to regain policy credibility. Russia’s geopolitical and debt woes are reducing growth in the central and eastern Europe region as a whole, if only by dragging down the average. Some