Cautionary tale for China’s rail boom.docxVIP

中国高铁繁荣的隐患Cautionary tale for China’s rail boom 作者：GMO资产配置团队成员爱德华?钱塞勒为英国《金融时报》撰稿In his recent State of the Union speech President Barack Obama commented favourably on Beijing’s infrastructure projects. Bullish analysts like to compare the rapid development of China’s transport network to the westward expansion of American railways in the nineteenth century. If they bothered to dust off their history books, they would find this comparison a source for concern rather than complacence.美国总统巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)在最近的国情咨文演讲中，对中国政府的基础设施项目给予了积极的评价。乐观的分析师喜欢将中国交通运输网络的迅速发展，与19世纪美国铁路的西扩运动进行类比。如果他们愿意费心去温习一下美国历史，就会发现，这种类比只会带来担忧，而非沾沾自喜的资本。The economic development of the western United States was driven by its railways. Between 1865 and 1873, 28,000 miles of track were laid at an estimated cost of $1.4bn. The new railways were supported by massive land grants and subsidised credit. An estimated three-fifths of the cost of the new railways was funded by the public.美国西部的经济发展是由铁路推动的。从1865至1873年，美国花费了约14亿美元，铺设了2.8万英里的铁路线。政府划拨了大量土地与补贴贷款，用于支持新铁路线的建设。新铁路线约五分之三的成本由公众资助。A real-estate frenzy was deliberately encouraged by the railway promoters. A publicist for the Northern Pacific Railroad, which had a land grant of nearly 50m acres, described its properties as a “vast wilderness waiting like a rich heiress to be appropriated and enjoyed”. Settlers were enticed with the promise that $50 lots would soon rise 100-fold in price. Property in Chicago, a railway hub and the gateway to the West, attracted wild speculation. Land values climbed by 500 per cent in the five years to 1873 on the general belief that the Windy City would shortly become the world’s largest metropolis. Subdivisions alongside new branch lines soared in value.铁路承建商蓄意推动了一波房地产热。北太平洋铁路公司(Northern Pacific Railroad)拥有近5000万英亩的政府拨地，一名公关人员如此描述该公司拥有的地产：“这片辽阔的荒凉之地，如同一位富有的女性继承人，亟待被占有与享用。”北太平洋铁路承诺，售价50美元的土地，很快价格将上涨100倍。这吸引了大批移民。作为铁路枢纽与通往西部的门户，芝加哥的房地产遭致了狂热的投机。由于人们普遍认为，风城（Windy City——芝加哥的别称，译者注）将很快成为世界上最大的都市，在截至1873年的5年内，该市土地价格涨了5倍。新支线沿线的土地