玉米产量预测模型.docVIP

本科毕业论文 题 目：日照玉米总产量预报模型 院 （部）： 理学院 专 业： 信息与计算科学 班 级： 信计054 姓 名： 朱庆亮 学 号： 2005121355 指导教师： 夏省祥 完成日期： 2009年6月15日 目 录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u 摘 要·································································Ⅱ ABSTRACT····························································Ⅲ 1 前 言 1.1 研究的目的和意义·····················································1 1.2 国内外研究现状·······················································2 1.3 研究内容·····························································3 2 资料来源及处理方法 2.1 资料来源·····························································4 2.2 处理方法····························································4 3 玉米产量预测的灰色模型 3.1 GM( 1 , 1) 模型的建模原理·············································7 3.2 GM( 1 , 1) 模型的建模过程及求解·······································7 3.3 结果与分析···························································8 4 玉米产量回归分析预报模型 4.1 日照地区状况及玉米生理特征··········································11 4.2 模型假设及符号说明··················································12 4.3 玉米产量回归分析预报模型············································13 4.4 日照玉米产量分析及预报··············································13 4.5 日照玉米单产的滑动平均预报方法······································14 4.6玉米产量的预测······················································21 5结 论·································································24 谢 辞··································································25 参考文献······························································26 摘 要 本文采用山东省气象局、山东省日照市气象局，山东省日照市农业局等不同地区（其中在三个试验点）进行的实验数据，其中包括1971—2008年的玉米产量，种植面积资料以及同期的气象资料等。通过滑动平均法对单产量进行处理，利用灰色模型对单产量进行简单的处理预测，分离趋势产量与气象产量，用多项式法对趋势产量进行模拟和分析。同时利用SPSS软件的相关性分析，回归分析等功能对数据进行处理，找出相关性因子，并得到回归方程，进而模拟气象产量，得到玉米产量与气象因子之间的关系，最后预测实际的玉米产量。 分析结果表明：日照市的玉米气象产量主要同播种期，成熟期等重要时期的相对湿度，日照，降水量和其他一些气象因子有关。在分析模拟的基础上，建立日照单产量模拟预测的计算机模型，初步开发了日照玉米产量的预报系统。 关键词: 玉米；回归分析；气象产量；趋势产量；灰色模型 Prediction Models of Maize Yield in Rizhao ABSTRACT By the experimental data come from Me