上海市终端能源消费的co 2 排放影响因素定量分析.pdf

中国环境科学 2012,32(9) ：1583~1590 China Environmental Science 上海市终端能源消费的 CO 排放影响因素定量分析 2 赵 敏* (上海市环境科学研究院,上海 200233) 摘要：以对数平均指数法(LMDI)方法为基础,探讨了包括生活能耗在内的上海市终端能源消 CO2 排放影响因素的分解方法,定量研究 了能源强度下降、能源结构优化、产业结构调整、经济发展规模和人口数量等影响因素对 CO2 排放变化量的贡献率.研究表明,上海市 2005~2009 年 CO2 排放增长了 2949 万 t,如果不采取任何减缓措施,经济增长和人口数量增加将导致 CO2 排放增长量相当于现在的 2.5 倍.能源强度下降、能源结构优化和产业结构调整起到了减缓 CO2 排放增长的作用,对减缓 CO2 排放增长的贡献率分别为-98%、-50% 和-22%.与 2000~2005 年对比分析发现,工业部门能源强度下降和能源结构优化的减缓作用都有所下降,而产业结构调整开始发挥减排 的作用,但贡献率还很低.生活能耗的 CO2 排放影响因素中,相较于人口数量增长,人均生活能耗上升是导致 CO2 排放增加的主要因素,且 贡献率逐渐增大. 关键词：CO2 排放；影响因素；定量分析；上海；生活能耗 中图分类号：X196 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2012)09-1583-08 Quantitative analysis of the factors influencing CO emissions from final energy consumption in Shanghai. ZHAO 2 * Min (Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233, China). China Environmental Science, 2012,32(9) ：1583~1590 Abstract ：A quantitative analysis of the major factors influencing the CO2 emissions from final energy consumption in Shanghai based on the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method was presented. Besides the CO2 emissions from industrial energy consumption, the emissions from urban household energy use were also considered in the analysis. The major factors influencing the CO2 emissions including energy intensity, energy and industrial structure, economic growth, and urban population were thus identified and adopted as the parameters for the LMDI method. The results show that the actual CO2 emissions in Shanghai increased 29.49 million ton from 2005 to 2009. If no reduction approaches were employed, the incensement of the emissions induced by the economic and population growth would be about 2.5 times of the act