whole life appraisal – engineering the future 未来工程—全生命周期 .pdf

Whole life appraisal – engineering the future 未来工程—全生命周期评价 Roger Flanagan University of Reading 英国雷丁大学 Predicting the future 未来预测 “The past can be known but cannot be changed, while the future cannot be fully known and yet it can be changed.” 过去已知却无法改变，未来未知却可以改变！ World Future Society “Today’s problems come from yesterday’s solutions.” 今天的问题来自昨天的解决办法。 Peter Senge, American scientist and management guru The challenges of engineering the future 未来工程挑战 Built assets are建筑资产是: • High value 高价值 • High profile 高利润 • High cost of consequential failure 继发故障的高成本 We need to find mechanisms to measure and manage long-term cost and performance and to future proof 我们需要寻找机制来衡量和管理长期 成本和评价绩效，并在未来得到证明 We need new tools and techniques to make better forecasts 我们需要新的工具和技术以便做出更好的预测 Chernobyl 切尔诺贝利（乌克兰） Innovation The building, rising from one of the most treacherous construction sites on Earth, will be 108m tall, 150m wide, an arch span of 257 metres and weigh 29,000 tonnes, designed to last 100 years. 这个建筑设计使用寿命为100年，它将是地 球上最危险的工地之一，其高108米，宽150 米，拱跨长为257米，重29000吨。 Fukushima 福岛（日本） The water used to cool the plant and prevent fires after the disaster became contaminated and had to be contained. But over 300 tonnes of highly radioactive water has leaked from the containers. 这个不得不被控制起来的水域是用来冷却 设备和防止火灾后污染，但是已有超过300 吨的高放射性水从容器中泄露。 Interconnectivity互联性 Temporary storage of contaminated water 临时储存的污染水 Burj Khalifa 哈利法塔（迪拜） The codes and standards had to be re-written to cope with the d