Theroleoffinancialfactorsin创新.PDFVIP

The role of financial factors in the trade collapse: a skeptic鈥檚 view Andrei A. Levchenko* Logan T. Lewis** Linda L. Tesar* * University of Michigan and NBER ** University of Michigan August 2010 Abstract This paper explores the role of financial factors in the 2008-9 collapse of U.S. imports and exports. Using highly disaggregated international trade data, we examine whether the cross-sectoral variation in how much imports or exports fell during this episode can be explained by financial variables. To do this, we employ a wide variety of possible indicators, such as standard measures of trade credit and external finance dependence, proxies for shipping lags at the sector level, and shares of intra-firm trade in each sector. Overall, there is very little evidence that financial factors played a role in the collapse of U.S. trade. JEL Classifications: F41, F42 Keywords: 2008-2009 Crisis, International Trade, Financial Factors 1 1. Introduction The contraction in trade that occurred during the 2008-9 recession was global in scale and remarkably deep. Over the 2008:2 to 2009:2 period, real U.S. goods imports fell by 21.4 percent and exports 18.9 percent. The drop in trade flows in the U.S. is even more dramatic when one takes into account the fact that both import and export prices simultaneously fell relative to domestic prices, which normally would have resulted in an expansion of trade flows. A number of recent papers have suggested that credit constraints were a significant contributing factor to the global decline in trade (see, e.g., Auboin 2009, IMF 2009, Chor and Manova, 20 10). To be sure, financial intermediaries were at the epicenter of the global crisis and it is clear that credit conditions facing firms and households tightened in the fall of 2008. These constraints could be particularly important for firms engaged in international trade, as they must extend credit to their fore