论文范例1上).docVIP

摘 要 电力系统作用的重要性使得电力系统负荷预测已成为电力系统中的一项重要课题，也是电力系统自动化领域中的一项重要内容。负荷预测的新技术层出不穷，但神经网络是目前使用较多的一种方法。神经网络法被认为是一种非常有效的负荷预测技术，负荷预测是神经网络在电力系统应用中最合适的一个领域，也是到目前为止研究得较多的一个课题，在国内外已经取得了许多成功的应用实例。神经网络法中运用较广泛的算法是BP算法，BP神经网络可以方便的拟合任意复杂的非线性关系，很适合于电力系统的负荷预报问题。但是BP算法同样存在它的弊端，此算法速度太慢，实际应用性较差。所以改进BP算法也是当前的一个重要研究主题，本设计中也研究了这个问题。 关键词 电力系统短期负荷预测；BP；算法神经网络 Abstract The importance of electric power system makes the forecasting of the electric system load an important task in the electric system automatization field. The new technologies of load forecasting emerge in endlessly, but the neutral network is the most widely used. The neutral network is regarded as one of the most load forecasting technology and the load forecasting is the most profit field for the neutral network in the electric system. It is also a problem that is widely studied and made successful application home and broad. BP arithmetic is widely used in neutral network which can fit any intricate nonlinear relation, it is fit for the load forecasting problem in electric system. However, BP also has disadvantages such as low speed and poor practical application, so it is also an important problem to improve the BP which is studied in this paper. Keywords the forecasting of electric system load BP neutral network 目 录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc265138401 摘 要 PAGEREF _Toc265138401 \h I HYPERLINK \l _Toc265138402 Abstract PAGEREF _Toc265138402 \h II HYPERLINK \l _Toc265138403 第1章 前言 PAGEREF _Toc265138403 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc265138404 1.1选题的背景及其意义 PAGEREF _Toc265138404 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc265138405 1.2电力系统负荷预测的国内外研究现状 PAGEREF _Toc265138405 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc265138406 第2章 短期负荷预测分析 PAGEREF _Toc265138406 \h 7 HYPERLINK \l _Toc265138407 2.1负荷预测的分类 PAGEREF _Toc265138407 \h 8 HYPERLINK \l _Toc265138408 2.1.1按用电部门的属性分类 PAGEREF _Toc265138408 \h 8 HYPERLINK \l _Toc265138409 2.1.2按负荷预测周期的时间长短分类 PAGEREF _Toc265138409 \h 8 HYPERLINK \l _Toc265138410 2.1.3负荷预测各部分的作用及关系 PAGEREF _Toc265138410 \h 9 HYPERLI