我国虚拟经济及实体经济的联动效应_省略_生品市场及实体经济数据的实证研究_周莹莹.pdfVIP

山西财 经大 学学报 2011 年5 月 Joumal of Shanxi Finance and Economics University May. ，2011 第33 卷第5 期 Vol.33 No.5 国民经济管理 我国虚拟经济与实体经济的联动效应 ———基于资本市场、金融衍生品市场与实体经济数据的实证研究 周莹莹，刘传哲 （中国矿业大学管理学院，江苏徐州221116） ［摘 要］在虚拟经济规模不断扩大的背景下，以1999 年第一季度至2010 年第三季度我国虚拟经济与实体经济各代表变 量的数据为样本，考察了虚拟经济与实体经济之间的联动效应。研究发现，长期内我国虚拟经济与实体经济之间存在联动效应， 尽管短期内虚拟经济对实体经济的发展存在负向冲击，但长期内虚拟经济发展对实体经济的影响显著，且对实体经济发展变化 的解释程度不断提高。从我国经济发展的实际来看，必须有效发挥虚拟经济与实体经济之间双向促进机制的作用。 ［关键词］虚拟经济；实体经济；联动效应；资本市场；金融衍生品市场 ［中图分类号］F830 [文献标识码] A [文章编号] 1007 －9556 （2011）05 －0010 －10 Coupling Effects of Chinese Fictitious Economy and Real Economy —Empirical Analysis on the Capital Market, Financial Derivatives Market and the Real —— Economy ZHOU Ying-ying, LIU Chuan-zhe （School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China） Abstract ：The coupling effects of Chinese fictitious economy and real economy are analyzed based on the representative vari－ ables data from the first quarter of 1999 to the third quarter of 2010. The results show that there are coupling effects between Chinese fictitious economy and real economy in the long term; and although there is negative impact of the fictitious economy on real economy in the short term, the fictitious economy influences the real economy significantly in the long run and the contribution rate of fictitious economy to real economy is increasing. It is necessary to take the effects of the two-way promotion mechanism between the fictitious economy and real economy based on Chinese economic development. Key Words ：fictitious economy; real economy; coupling effects; ca