我国居民消费率重新估算.docVIP

我国居民消费率重新估算 　　[摘要] 分析了造成官方统计低估居民消费的四个原因，并重估了居民消费率。利用CFPS和UHS数据，采用等价租金法重估了城镇居民住房消费；用第三产业增加值增速代替服务性消费增加值增速重估了居民服务消费；将网络购物消费纳入居民消费之中；对广为流行的公司账户付费的私人消费进行了估算，并结合资金流量表中的住户部门可支配收入重新估算出居民消费支出。结果表明，经过重估后2012年我国居民消费率从37.1%升至43.2%，相应地最终消费率从50.8%升至53.8%。因此可以发现，重估后的居民消费率与最终消费率仍然偏低，不能改变消费不足的事实 [关键词] 国民经济核算；居民消费率；住房消费；重估 [中图分类号] F014.5[文献标识码] A[文章编号] 1008―1763（2017）02―0082―08 A Reestimation of Chinese Residents Consumption Rate HE Yun1，BI Bo2，ZHANG Zhe2 （1.School of Business，Hunan Normal University，Changsha410081，China；2.School of Economics ，Southwestern University of Finance and Economics，Chengdu611130，China） Abstract：This paper mainly analyzed four reasons of official statistics underestimation，and reestimated the residents consumption rate.First of all，this paper reestimated the housing consumption of urban residents through the equivalent rent method with CFPS and UHS data.Then，the paper reestimated the residents service consumption by the third industrial added value growth，which replaced service consumption added value growth.Besides，network consumption was also included by residents consumption.Finally，the paper estimated personal consumption of the widely popular company account，and reestimated residents consumption expenditure by disposable income of household sector in flow of fund statement.The results showed that Chinese residents consumption rate rose to 43.2% from 37.1%，and final consumption rate rose to 53.8% from 50.8% accordingly.It was undeniable to say that the reestimation of residents consumption and the final consumption rate were still low， and would not be able to change the reality of inadequacy of residents consumption. Key words：system of national accounts；residents consumption rate；housing consumption；reestimation 一引言 根??官方统计数据，我国2010-2014年的最终消费支出占GDP的比例分别为49.1%、50.2%、50.8%、51.0%、51.4%，这意味着我国总的储蓄率高达50%左右，接近一半的收入转化为了投资和出口。从国际上看，近几年各国的最终消费支出占GDP的比例普遍达60%～70%甚至更高，美国、英国等发达国家更是接近90%。经济新常态背景下，我国消费需求不足，建立在失衡的三大需求基础上的经济增长已不可持续，国内外学者和相关