管理概論Chapter4(22页).pptVIP

管理概論Chapter 4Foundation of Decision Making Learning Outcomes Describe the steps in decision-making process. Identify the assumptions of rational decision-making model. Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them. Define heuristics and explain how they affect the decision-making process. Describe the advantages and the disadvantages of group decision. The Decision-Making Process Step 1：Identification of a problem A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs. Step 2：Identification of decision criteria A manager has to assess what factors are relevant in his decision. Step 3：Allocation of weights to criteria It is necessary to allocate weights to the items listed in step 2 in order to give them their relative priority in the decision. Step 4：Development of alternatives No attempt is made in this step to appraise these alternatives, only to list them. Step 5：Analysis of alternatives Each alternative is evaluated by appraising it against the criteria. Step 6：Selection of an alternative We merely have to choose the alternative that generated the highest score in step 5. Step 7：Implementation of the alternative This step is concerned with putting the decision into action. Step 8：Evaluation of decision effectiveness The last step in the decision-making process appraises the result of decision to see whether it has corrected the problem.(Chapter 13) Making Decisions：The Rational Model The problem is clear and unambiguous. A single well-defined goal is to be achieved. All alternatives and consequences are known. Preferences are clear. Preferences are constant and stable. No time or cost constraints exist. Final choice will maximize economic payoff. Modification of the Rational Model – Bounded Rationality What the managers do is construct simplified models that extract the essential features from problems without capturing all of their complexities. A decision in which “good enough” so