辽宁省水库富营养化限制因子及风险研究.pdfVIP

环搅工程 162 Environmental Engineering 辽宁省水碎宫营养化，，..喇~ð-怠风险研究 * 武味1 郭飞2 李延东1 ( 1. 辽宁省环没监测实验中心，沈阳 110161; 2. 中国环境科学研究院.北京 1 00012) 摘要:中国东北部典型水库群的富营养化风险管理是饮用水安全的重要保障。 选择辽宁省 15 个主要水库作为研究案 例，以近十年的水质数据为评价基础 . 采用统计学分析方法，针对春、夏、秋 3 个季节建立富营养化指标的回归模型，识 别不同季节富营养化产生的主要限制园子。 采用概率分布曲线法对各水库发生中营养化和轻度富营养化的风险进行 评估，并对 15 J.t水库的风险进行排序。 结果表明 :水库富营养化在不同季节的环境限制因子各有不同，水库中营养化 和轻度富营养化的风险特征也有显著差异。 关键词:水库;富营养化;统计分析; 多元线性回归 ; 风险评价 DOI: 10. 13205/j. hjgc. 201612034 LIMITING FACTORS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF RESERVOIRS EUTROPHICATION IN LIAONING 2 WU Jian , GUO Fei , LI Yan-dong ( 1. Liaoning Environmental Monitoring Experiment Center , Shenyang 110161 , China; 2. Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences , Beijing 100012 , China) Abstract: Eutrophication risk management of reservoirs in Northeast China is an important guarantee for drinking water safety in this region. Using statistical analysis methods , monitoring data of recent ten years of 15 reservoirs in Liaoning Province were studied to establish regression models of eutrophication for spring , summer and autumn , respectively . Furthermore , the main limiting factors of eutrophication in each season were deduced. Prohability distribution curves were established 10 assess the risk of eutrophication in the reservoirs , and the risks of the fifteen reservoirs were also rank ed. The results showed that limiting factors of reservoir eutrophication varied with seasons , and there were significant differences in the risk characteristics of