堤防失事风险分析和风险管理研究_徐卫亚.pdf

25 1 Vol.25 No.1 2006 1 Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering Jan .2006 1 1 2 3 3 (1. 210098 2. 210012 3. 210008) 1995 TU 45 A 1000 6915(2006)01 0047 09 RISK ANALYSIS AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR LEVEES FAILURE 1 1 2 3 3 XU Wei-ya XING Wan-bo WEI Wen-bai WANG Kai YAN Xu (1. Institute of Geotechnical Engineering Hohai University Nanjing Jiangsu210098 China 2. Yuhuatai Water Conservancy and Agricultural Machine BureauNanjing Jiangsu210012 China 3. Nanjing Water Conservancy Bureau Nanjing Jiangsu210008 China) Abstract Based on the mathematical models of seepage failure risk and slide instability risk for leveesthe mathematical models of sandy soil seismic liquefaction risk and comprehensive failure risk for levees were developed and the conception of risk management for levees was established. The risks of seepage failureslope slide instabilitysandy soil seismic liquefaction and comprehensive failure in Banqiao River levee were analyzed and critical risk coefficients for seepage failureslide instability and comprehensive failure in Banqiao River levee were found on the failure case of Banqiao River levee in 1995. In addition according to the results of risk analysisand approaches of risk managementmeasures to decrease the failure risk of the levee and suggestions to the levee operation management in flood seasons were proposed. The analytical approach and the results will be practical