危险化学品泄漏事故演化机理研究.PDFVIP

2014 年第40卷第2 期 　　　　　工业安全与环保　 February 2014 　　　　　　　　Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection ·21 · 危险化学品泄漏事故演化机理研究＊ 1 1 2 3 1 袁雄军 　毕海普 　周宁 　任常兴 　王凯全 (1.常州大学环 与安全工程学院　江苏常州213164;　2.常州大学石油工程学院　江苏常州213016; 3.公安部天津消防研究所火灾理论科室　天津 300381) 　　摘　要　为了分析危险化学品泄漏事故演化机理, 简化其定量风险分析过程, 先假设容器失效导致的初 始事件为危险化学品泄漏事件, 再根据危险化学品物质特性分类和中间演化事件场景, 构建了常见的各类危 险化学品发生泄漏初始事件后的通用事件树, 并根据已有的研究成果, 对事件树中各种中间演化事件概率进 行取值研究。研究结果表明, 通用事件树能很好地揭示基于物质特性和中间事件场景的泄漏事故演化规律, 应用含中间演化事件概率的通用事件树能计算出各种事故后果发生的频率, 对危险化学品事故的快速定量 风险分析有十分重要的参考意义。 　　关键词　通用事件树　危险化学品　事故演化机理　初始事件　中间事件　定量风险分析 Study on Evolution Mechanism for Hazardous Chemical Leakage Accident 1 1 2 3 1 YUAN Xiongjun 　BI Haipu 　ZHOU Ning 　REN Changxing 　WAN Kaiquan (1.School of Environment S af ety Engineering, Changz hou University 　Changzhou,J iangsu 213164) Abstract　In order to analyze evolution mechanism for hazardous chemical leakage accident and simplify quantitative risk analysis, the initiating events resulted from loss of containment is firstly assumed as hazardous chemicals leakage incident, then generic event trees for common hazardous chemical leakage accidents are constructed according to the properties of the released hazardousmaterials andthe corresponding intermediate events andalso the intermediate probabilities (immediate ig- nition, delayed ignition,flame front acceleration, etc.)are added to the corresponding generic event trees on the basis of the existing research results.The results show that generic event trees can reveal the evolution laws of hazardous chemical leakage accidents well and the final accident freque