国际问题研究所_英语论文集_10章_CC15.indd-the.PDF

This article was translated by JIIA from Japanese into English to promote Japanese scholarly work on international relations. JIIA takes full responsibility for the translation of this article. To obtain permission to use this article beyond the scope of your personal use and research, please contact JIIA by e-mail (jdl_inquiry @jiia.or.jp). Citation: Japan and the World, Japan Digital Library (March 2017), http://www2.jiia.or.jp/en/digital_library/world.php Rise of Emerging Countries and Transformation of the International System* Masatsugu Naya (Sophia University) Introduction International political discussions on the rise of emerging countries have tended to fall into two catego- ries. In one, it is widely believed balance of power is the primary determinant of order among major powers, with differences in the stability of order mainly attributed to distribution of power, difficulty in calculating equilibrium, and functioning of balancing mechanisms. The other is more of a long-term view that maintains advantages of specific countries create order in the system; this is illustrated by the cycle of change in dominant powers, stability (with possibility of war) during the dominant power tran- sition period, and characteristics of dominant powers/challenging powers in the transitional period (level of satisfaction with the status quo).1 Organski, who can be thought of as a proponent of the latter viewpoint, criticized the balance of power theory and instead advocated the “power transition” theory, although the