灰色新陈代谢模型在农民收入和消费预测中的应用.pdfVIP

, Journal of Anhu iAgri. Sci. 2010, 38 ( 29) : 16083- 16085 张志转 况玲玲 沈菊红 (, 750021) 运用灰色系统理论和方法, 建立了灰色新陈代谢GM ( 1, 1) 宁夏农村居民人均纯收 和人均生活消费模型在MATLAB环境下 对该模型的精度以及误差进行了分析, 并利用该模型对宁夏农村人均纯收 和人均生活消费进行预测预测结果表明, 灰色新陈代谢 GM ( 1, 1)预测模型能够明显地提高预测精度, 增加预测的可靠性 灰色系统; 新陈代谢GM ( 1, 1)模型; 收 ; 生活消费 F323. 8 A 0517- 6611( 2010) 29- 16083- 03 Application ofGreyMetabolicModel in thePrediction of the Revenue and Consumption of theRuralResidents SHEN Juhong ( D epartment of nforma tion and Computation Sc ience, N orth U niversity for E th ics, Y inchuan, N ingx ia 750021) Abstract A gray M etabo licGM ( 1, 1) mode l of per cap ita net income and life consumption of the rura l residents in N ingx ia w as established in w hich applied the grey system theory and method. The precision and error of the mode lw ere ana lyzed in theM ATLAB env ironmen,t and the m odelw as applied to predict the per capita net incom e and life consumption o f farm ers inN ingx ia. The predication result show ed that the g rey M etabolic GM ( 1, 1) model could obv iously mi prove the precision of forecasting and increase the re liability of prediction. eywords G rey system; M etabo lic GM ( 1, 1) m ode;l ncom e; L ife consumption a^ , , T T - 1 T a^ = (a, b) = (B B ) B Yn ( 2) , , , , - 1/ 2(x (1) ( 1) + x (1) ( 2) ), 1 , - 1/ 2(x (1) ( 2) + x (1) ( 3) ), 1 ,