北京市机动车拥堵成本测算与分析.pdfVIP

第 11卷第 1 期 2011 年 2 月 交通运输系统工程与信息 Joumal of Transportation Systems Engineering and lnformation Technology 1l OOU N2 凹 ， · · · · 拍 e lm - 侃 巾 VF 文.编号: 1009 -6744 (2011) 0] -0 ]68 -05 北京市机动车拥堵成本测算与分析 关奇兵11 ，陈峰川，黄走l ，胡映月 1 (1.北京交通大学土木建筑工程学院，北京 100044; 2.~t京市创溺篡础设施建役投资公司，北京 100052 ) 摘要: 对北京市机动卒拥堵成本的研究，可从经济上量化交通拥堵所产生的成本，从 而为决策部门制定相关政策提供依据.在详细阐述国内外机动车拥堵成本概况后，本 文提出了拥堵的 11各界速度，分析了拥堵的各个子项成本，并建立时间、能耗、尾气三大于 项成本的计算模型.本文不但对 2008 年北京市机动牟交通拥堵成本进行了测算并将 结果与闺外研究成果进行比对，而且对 2009 年北京市交通拥堵成本进行了预测和敏感 性分析.交通拥堵成本的经济化，有助于更加直观地分析拥堵成本与社会经济之间的 关系，为竣解交通拥堵，实现低破出行提供决策参考. 关键词: 城市交通;交通拥堵 ;11各界速度;时间成本;能耗成本;尾气成本;碳权交易 中阁分类号: U268.6 文献栋识码: A Calculation and Analysis of Traffic Congestion Cost in Beijing WU Qi-hingl.2 , CHEN Feng l , H lJANG Yao l , HU Ying-yue l ( 1. School of Civil Engineering , Beijing Jiaotong University , Beijing 100044 , China; 2. Beijing Chuangtong Infrastructure Construction Investment Company , Beijing 100052 , China) Abstract: In order to quantify the cost arising from traffic congestion of Beijing economically , and provide the basis for the decision俑making departments to formulat correlated policy , the paper study on the traffic congestion cost in Beijing. After detailedly described the traffic congestion cost at home and abroad , this pa- per proposes the critical velocity , analyzes the sub-costs of traffic congestion , and establishes the calculation model of the three s巾-items cost which are time , energy consumption and gas costs. This paper not only cal- culate the traffic congestion cost in Beijing in 2008 and compare it with overseas research , but also predicte the traffic congestion cost in Beijing in 2009 and do sensitivity analysis on it. The economization of the cost contribute 10 analyze the relationship between the traffic congestion cosl and the socío-economic more intui- tively , which can a1so províde reference for the decision-making of alleviate traffic congestion and the Real卜 zation of a low-carbon trip. Key words: urban traffic; tra