Lambert_Turley_RApaper.pdf

1 Priority-Setting for the Distribution of Localized Hazard Protection Paper accepted for publication and to appear in Risk Analysis: An International Journal By James H. Lambert and Thomas Turley Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia June 2004 Abstract We address the problem of distributing safety-enhancing devices across a region, where each identical device provides for only local protection of the population. The devices protect non-identical sectors of the population. The sectors of population are exposed to non- identical intensities of hazard. A method for the screening and prioritizing of needs for the protective devices is described. An approach of risk-benefit-cost analysis under uncertainty is recommended as follows. Measures of hazard intensity and population exposure are identified. Exogenous parameters that influence assessments of risks, benefits, and costs are identified. Uncertainties of the exogenous parameters are propagated by interval analysis. Several tiers of the plausibility of need for protection are identified. The tiers are useful in setting priorities for the distribution of the safety devices. The method is demonstrated in an engineering application to roadway lighting, but has implications for disaster preparedness, anti-terrorism, transportation safety, and other arenas of public safety. Key words: system safety, benefit-cost analysis, risk-based decisions, priority setting, hazard protection, roadway lighting 2 Introduction We motivate the need for priority-setting of localized hazard protection as follows. Experience has shown that roadway lighting can be an effective safety countermeasure for night accidents and for a general safety improvement to roadways. However, public agencies have limited resources and cannot address all identified. Screening is required in order to select the most beneficial needs based on crash reduction and safety improvement.