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Howbigathreatisinflation-IISWindowsServer.pdf

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Howbigathreatisinflation-IISWindowsServer

Edition #19 18 June 2008 How big a threat is inflation? Key points The rise in inflation in developed countries is mainly due to the surge in food energy prices 6 ? Inflation and talk of higher interest rates have replaced Annual % change the credit crunch as the main worries for investors. 5 ? Food energy are the main drivers of higher inflation now, although it’s broader in parts of Asia and Australia. 4 ? Our assessment is that inflation will decline as growth 3 G7 headline inflation slows and as oil prices fall in the next six months. ? However, inflation/stagflation worries over the next few 2 G7 = US, Germany, months will add to the volatile ride for financial assets. 1 France, UK, Italy, Introduction Japan, Canada G7 core inflation (ie, ex food energy) 0 Concerns about the global credit crunch and the US 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 housing slump have been supplanted by worries about Source: Thomson Financial, AMP Capital Investors