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database of DNA profiles
Biometrika (2006), 93, 3, pp. 525–536
? 2006 Biometrika Trust
Printed in Great Britain
Forensic identification of relatives of individuals included in a
database of DNA profiles
B? DAVID CAVALLINI ??? FABIO CORRADI
Department of Statistics, University of Florence, 50134 Florence, Italy
cavallin@ds.unifi.it corradi@ds.unifi.it
S??????
In this paper we evaluate the characteristics observed both on a crime sample and on
individuals included in a database to assess the probability of alternative hypotheses
concerning identification. The problem is first addressed by considering a generic charac-
teristic and we demonstrate the problem via a computationally efficient Bayesian network.
Then we turn our attention to a heritable ??? trait to show how to evaluate the hypotheses
that some individuals, genetically related to the members of the database, are the donors
of the crime sample. Then the network is extended to cope with many loci. Applications
of the method are provided as well as details of computational requirements.
Some key words: Bayesian network; Database of ??? profiles; Forensic identification; Search on a database.
1. I???????????
In this paper we consider the forensic identification problem arising when a crime
sample is found but there is no clue about its origin and a search in a database is a real
possibility.
In the case where only non-heritable characteristics are concerned, or if heritability is
not exploited, Dawid (1994) and Dawid Mortera (1996) found computationally simple
solutions to cases arising in a database search involving one or more matches, imperfect
evidence and different observation schemes. Simplicity was achieved mainly because all
the individuals considered in the evaluation of hypotheses were observed, so that, for
those not matching the crime sample, the posterior probability of identification was zero
or expressed by formulae depending on laboratory error parameters. Even within this
simplified setting the database search problem
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