Scenarios andDecision Support Systems.pptVIP

Scenarios andDecision Support Systems Monika Zurek FAO, Rome Greg Kiker University of Florida  Overview of the talk Looking into the future What are scenarios? Why use scenarios? Decision Support Systems The GECAFS scenarios component Looking into the future Out of curiosity For scientific exploration For decision-making Decisions are based on expected outcomes and the trade-offs they imply Decisions involve uncertainty about how the future will unfold For planning purposes/strategic planning exercise Sources of Uncertainty when thinking about the Future Methods for looking into the future Predictions are seen by the public and decision makers as things that will happen no matter what they do. Forecast is the best estimate from a particular method, model, or individual. Projections are heavily dependent on assumptions about drivers and boundary conditions; they often assume that these will not change. Projections lead to if this, then that statements. Scenarios…… Scenario Definitions Plausible stories about how the future might unfold from existing patterns, new factors and alternative human choices. The stories can be told in the language of both words and numbers (Raskin, in press). Plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces (Nakicenovic 2000). A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out (Schwartz 1996). Plausible alternative futures, each an example of what might happen under particular assumptions (MA). Why use scenarios? Purpose of scenarios: Information dissemination Scientific exploration Decision-making tool Understanding all factors influencing the future Robust strategies that work under different worlds ? Different process of stakeholder involvement in scenario development ?Understanding and communicating the main assumptions