深圳市流行性感冒监测参考线的设计及预警应用.pdfVIP

痘监测2 !生12 3Q旦笠2 鲞箍 12期 ! se S fv i!!塑 c．3Q，2 2， ． ： 2 · 论 著· 深圳市流行性感冒监测参考线的 设计及预警应用 逯建华 ， 张顺祥 ， 谷利妞 ， 程小雯 ， 何建凡 摘要： 目的 为科学有效地预警流行性感冒(流感)的爆发和流行，制定符合深圳市的流感监测基线 和警戒曲线。方法 收集深圳市第一人民医院、深圳市妇幼保健院2003—2006年的流感监测资料，以 周为单位，对流感样病例百分比ILI(％)进行统计分析，以确定基线和警戒曲线。结果 深圳市流感监 测结果可靠，基线值为5．95％，警戒曲线具有较好的灵敏度和季节性，能及时发现异常值。结论 深圳 市的流感监测参考线具有较好的灵敏性和季节性，能起到一定预警作用。 关键词：流感；监测；基线；警戒曲线 中图分类号：R373．1 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1003—9961(2007)12—0799—03 Design and application of the reference lines of influenza surveillance in Shenzhen City LU Jian— hua，ZHANG Shun—xiang，GU Li—niu，CHENG Xiao—wen，et a1．Shenzhen Municipal CDC of Guangdong Province，Shenzhen 51 8020，China Corresponding Author：LU Jian—hua，Email：szcdc-hxd@163．com Abstract： Objective The study was conducted to establish the baseline and the alert curve of influenza surveillance according to the conditions in Shenzhen to make scientific and effective early warning of influenza epidemic．Methods The influenza surveillance data in the First People S Hospital of Shenzhen and the Municipal Children and Women Hospital from 2003 to 2006 were collected for the statistical analysis of the percentage of influenza—like cases，ILI (％)，on a weekly basis to determine the baseline and alert curve．Results The surveillance results were reliable．Th e baseline value was 5．95％，and the alert curve had good sensitivity and seasonality，being timely in inding unusual value．Conclusion Tf h e reference fines of the influenza surveillance in Shenzhen have good sensitivity and seasonality．They play certain roles in early warning．