Economic Analysis of DryMill Ethanol Production干磨乙醇生产的经济分析.pptVIP

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Economic Analysis of DryMill Ethanol Production干磨乙醇生产的经济分析.ppt

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Dry-Grind Ethanol Production: Economic Sensitivity Douglas G. Tiffany Research Fellow University of Minnesota Today’s Discussion Work arose from “Factors Associated with Success of Fuel Ethanol Producers” written w/ Vernon Eidman Funding: USDA Rural Development MN Ag. Experiment Station 1) Briefly establish key factors in dry-grind ethanol production 2) Demonstrate economic sensitivity of this technology in this market Dry-Grind Technology Dry-Grind Plants-- now 67% of U.S. production--simpler process, lower capital costs, but refinements are occurring. Ethanol from corn has a positive energy balance. (1.34 – 1.51) USDA, Argonne Lab, Michigan State University, Ag. Canada Ethanol Dry-Grind Grind bushel of corn (56 lb.), add water, make mash, cook to kill bacteria, expose starch Add enzymes for flow to convert starch to sugar Introduce Yeasts in Batch Fermenters---- produce beer---- distill the ethanol Products: ethanol– (2.75 gal.) requires heat to distill DDGS- (18 lbs.) generally requires drying CO2-- ( 18 lbs. ) food grade 150 bushel corn yields 413 gallons of ethanol per acre, 2700 pounds of DDGS Project Goals Methods Goal: Describe and Quantify Factors of Success in Dry-Grind Ethanol Production Steps in Research Conduct Interviews of Plant Personnel Bankers—to Learn Factor Inputs, etc. Develop Spreadsheets to Measure Plant Profits Interpret Results Advise Farmers/Investors, Bankers Policymakers Dry Grind Revenue Categories (5 yr.)* Ethanol Sales 80% DDGS Sales 19% CO2 1% MN Subsidy -0- Total 100% Five Key Factors Baseline Levels Corn Price---- $2.20 per bushel Ethanol Price---- $1.15 per gallon Nat. Gas Price----$4.50 per dekatherm Ethanol Yield---- 2.75 gal.(anhyd)/bushel Capacity Factor of Nameplate----1.20 Model Predicts Addl. Value of Higher Total Fermentables in Corn Increase Total Fermentables by 4% Equals $909,450 for typical dry