经济管理学与财务知识分析趋势.pdf

经济学人中文网 [2012.11.26]Global trends for 2013:2013 全球趋势Top10 [导读] ：若是可以预知未来，你的第一反应是不是首先去买张彩票？准确地预言未来不可能， 但是对未来发展趋势的洞察可能会让你和你的企业从中受益。 Global trends for 2013 2013 全球趋势 A top ten for business leaders 商业领袖应该关注的全球趋势 Top10 Nov 26th 2012, 11:01 by J.A. Cassandra is obviously not the only forecaster, and sadly on occasion this particular modern-day soothsayer fails to match the infallibility of his classical forebear. I say this because the England cricket team, despite my dire predictions of disappointment, has today handsomely defeated India in Mumbai. So, it is in a spirit of humility that I offer these predictions for 2013 from alternative (I am loth to say rival) forecasters, Professor Thomas Malnight of the IMD business school in Lausanne and his colleague Tracey Keys of Strategy Dynamics Global. 显然，卡桑德拉（Cassandra ）【注 1】并不是唯一的预言家。不过作为一位现代的“预言家”， 有时候我的预言在准确程度上却比不上这位古希腊的前辈。我之所以这么说是因为我之前预 言今天英格兰板球队会在孟买举行的比赛中输给印度，结果英格兰队却轻松获胜。因此，我 深感羞愧，不敢再口出狂言。在这里，我给出其他一些预言家（我不愿意把他们当成我的对 手）对 2013 年若干趋势的预测。他们是来自洛桑国际管理学院（IMD business school in Lausanne ）的托马斯•麦尔耐特（Thomas Malnight ）教授和他同时也兼职于 Strategy Dynamics Global 的同事特蕾西•克伊丝（Tracey Keys ）。 Looking down their ten trends, I find myself general in agreement (though Im not as pessimistic as they are in number 7, and we have to bear in mind that a lot of what they say is more relevant to the years well beyond 2013). And quite what they mean by the ownerless economy in number 2 is a bit of a mystery…Still, well worth pondering, and well worth looking at the Globaltrends website. Meanwhile, here is their potted version: 下面是他们预测的十大趋势，我的观点跟他们差不多。（不过对于第 7 点，我并不像他们那 么悲观，但我们应该注意：这不仅是对 2013 年的预测，他们的观点对于之后的许多年会更 有意义）。他们在第 2 点中说的“无主经济”很是让人费解。不过，Globaltrends website 网站 值得一看，上面的内容引人深思。下面就是他们观点的概述： The great power shift 各种力量的巨大转变 10 tr