Long-run energy scenarios for Cambodia and Laos Building an integrated techno-economic and environmental modelling framework for scenario analyses》.pdfVIP

Energy 91 (2015) 866e881 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Energy journal homepage: /locate/energy Long-run energy scenarios for Cambodia and Laos: Building an integrated techno-economic and environmental modelling framework for scenario analyses Jyrki Luukkanen a, *, Orkide Akgün a, Jari Kaivo-oja a, Mika Korkeakoski a, Tytti Pasanen b, Juha Panula-Ontto a, Jarmo Vehmas a a Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, Yliopistonkatu 58 D, 33100 Tampere, Finland b University of Tampere, School of Social Sciences and Humanities, FI-33014 University of Tampere, Finland a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: This article analyses energy trends in Cambodia and Laos and constructs future scenarios. The target is (i) Received 15 April 2015 to compare different scenario methods, (ii) to construct scenarios with these methods, (iii) to analyse the Received in revised form future energy demand and the related CO2 emissions and (iv) to analyse the potential role of renewable 6 August 2015 energy sources and their impact on CO2 emissions. Accepted 27 August 2015 Available online xxx Decomposition scenarios have been constructed based on the trends of the drivers of the energy consumption and CO2 emissions. More detailed scenarios have been constructed using combined LEAP/ LINDA models to take into account the structural socio-economic and