Measuring and Managing Economic Exposure.ppt

0109 201308130011 Measuring and Managing Economic Exposure Chapter 11 PART I. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND ECONOMIC EXPOSURE I. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK A. Economic exposure focuses on the impact of currency fluctuations on firm’s value. 1 . The most important aspect of foreign exchange risk management: Incorporate expectations about the risk into all basic decisions of the firm. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND ECONOMIC EXPOSURE 2. Definition: Economic exposure = Transaction exposure + Operating exposure: arises because currency fluctuations alter a company’s future revenues and expenses. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND ECONOMIC EXPOSURE To measure operating exposure requires a longer-term perspective. i.e. Cost and price competitiveness could be affected by exchange rate changes FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND ECONOMIC EXPOSURE Operating Exposure begins: The moment a firm starts to invest in a market subject to foreign competition or in sourcing goods or inputs abroad. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND ECONOMIC EXPOSURE B. Real Exchange Rates Changes and Risk Nominal v. real exchange rates: real rate has been adjusted for price changes. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND ECONOMIC EXPOSURE C. Implications 1. If nominal rates change with an equal price change, no alteration to cash flows. 2. If real rates change, it causes relative price changes and changes in purchasing power. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND ECONOMIC EXPOSURE A decline in the real value of a currency: Makes exports and import-competing goods more competitive. An appreciating currency makes: Imports and export-competing goods more competitive. 實質匯率 1/2 會增加營運暴險的匯率變動即為實質匯率(real exchange rate)。 實質與名目匯率之間的區別是很重要的，因為它們對外匯風險有不同的意義。名目匯率的劇烈變化若伴隨著價格水準相同的變化，對國內和國外競爭者的相對競爭地位也就不會有影響，因此也不會改變實質的現金流量。 實質匯率變動，則會使相對價格改變，影響國內及國外相對競爭地位。 實質匯率 2/2 如果匯率變動完全可由通貨膨脹率的差異所抵銷，則公司將不會面臨營運外匯風險。 在面對國內外的競爭時，美元實質價值上升（下降）會傷害（