AStudyoftyphoonsrainstormFloodDisasterRiskScenarioAnalysisBasedonGISinWenzhou.pdf

A Study of typhoons rainstorm - Flood Disaster Risk Scenario Analysis Based on GIS in Wenzhou Yaolong Liu Zhenlou Chen Jun Wang* Mingwu Ye Shiyuan Xu Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education, School of environment and science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 20062, China Abstract Based on the idea of natural hazards scenario analysis, this paper launched typhoon rainstorm - flood hazard, disaster receptor vulnerability and disaster loss analysis. Using pearson-Ⅲ model and ArcGIS spatial analyst tools, the scenario - risk was presented in Wenzhou city of Zhejiang prov- ince in China. As a result, typhoon rainstorm – floods disaster risks of most regions in Wenzhou belong to mid-hign level in the next 50 years. High risk areas Concentrated in Longwan and Lu- cheng district. It is clear there is difference of priority level to different intensity of disasters in same regions in future time period. Keywords Hazard risk; scenario analysis; GIS; typhoon rainstorm – flood; Wenzhou 风 涝 基于 GIS 的温州市台 暴雨-洪 灾害 情景风险分析 龙 陈 军 许 远 刘耀 振楼 王 * 叶明武 世 华东师范大学资源与环境科学学院地理信息科学教育部重点实验室, 上海 200062, 中国 摘 要: 基于自然灾害风险情景分析基本思想，运用 P-Ⅲ型概率模型和 ArcGIS 空间分析模 块，开展温州市台风暴雨-洪涝灾危险性、承灾体脆弱性、灾害损失分析和情景风险分级研 基金项目：国家自然科学基金重点项目），上海市科技启明星项目（09QA1401800 ），华东师范大 学 2008 年优秀博士研究生培养基金. 作者简介:刘耀龙,(1984-),男,山西五寨人,博士研究生,研究方向:环境安全与风险评估.E-Mail: ylliu2006@126.com *通讯作者：王军(1975-),男,副教授,硕士生导师, E-Mail: jwang@ 1 究。结果表明：未来 2