民航客运量季节调整实证研究.pdfVIP

25 1 ( ) Vo l. 25 No . 1 2011 1 Jo urnal o f Sh ando ng U niver sity o f T echno log y( N atural Science Edit ion) Jan . 2011 1672- 6197( 2011) 01- 00 64- 04 郑 彦 ( 厦门城市职业学院经济管理学部, 福建厦门36100 8) 在分析国内对民航客运量定量研究方法 存在问题的基础上, 用国际上流行的X- 12- A R IM A T RA M O/ SEA T S 季节调整方法对我国民航客运量的时间序列进行季节调整分析 预测. 实证研究表明, 周末效应或闰年因素对我国民航游客运输量变化没有造成显著影响, 而春节 SA RS 事件却是引起民航客运量大幅波动的重要因素. 因此, 季节调整手段为我们估算外界干扰因 素的影响程度提供了一个可用的定量方法. 民航客运量; 季节调整; 预测 F 560. 6 A Seasonal adjustment on the number of civil aviations passengers ZH EN G Y an ( Econom ics and M anag em ent Dep art m ent , Xiam en City V ocational Colleg e, Xiam en 361008, China) Abstract: On the basis of review ing current methodolog ies in f orecast ing t he number o f civ il av ia- t ions passeng ers and t heir short comings , t his p aper u ses seaso nal adjust ment m et hod t o st u dy mo nt hly fig ures of p assenger numbers of civil aviat io n w it h X- 12- A RIM A and T RA M O/ SEA T S mo dels. T he em pirical analysis show s t h at t he fact or s such as w eekend and leap y ear do no t af fect t he number o f civil av iat ions passengers signif icant ly . Spring F est ival and SA RS , how ev er, lead t o short- term f luct uat ion in t he number of civil aviation s passeng ers . In general, t he seasonal ad- just ment met hod is a po w erf ul t ool t o condu ct scient if ic research o n time ser ies w it h seaso nal f ac- t ors. Key words: the num ber of civ il aviation s p as seng ers; seaso nal adjustm ent ; for ecast 1 GDP