广东北江流域极端降水时空变化趋势分析.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2012, 1, 239-244 doi:10.4236/jwrr.2012.14034 Published Online August 2012 (/journal/jwrr.html) Analyzing the Spatial-Temporal Variation Trends in Extreme Precipitation in Beijiang River Basin of * Guangdong Province Zhanming Liu, Zishen Chen Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou Email: liuzhanming177@163.com, eesczs@ Received: Mar. 4th, 2012; revised: Mar. 28th, 2012; accepted: Apr. 7th, 2012 Abstract: The paper selected 6 extreme precipitation indices base on the daily data of 18 stations in Beijiang River basin from 1965 to 2007. The River basin was divided into three different extreme precipitation spa- tial-temporal characteristic subareas by REOF method. The non-parametric method of Mann-Kendall trend test is applied to analysis variation trend. The change points of extreme precipitation indices were analyzed by the moving t-test method, the long-term changes in stability and relative variation were analyzed by varia- tion coefficient, and the cycle characteristics were analyzed by the Morlet wavelet transform. Results show that, R1d, R5d, R95T and CDD were on the rise, while CWD and R95p declined; the change of extreme pre- cipitation in long-term has large variability, and mountain area more than plain; the extreme indices were common mutation in the early 1990s, significant change cycle around 1990 scale difference, all of these may due to the high-speed economic development after 1990, and the influence of human activity more intense than before. Keywords: Beijiang River Basin; Extreme Precipitation; Spatial-Temp