国适生区域及其入侵概率.pdfVIP

中国农业科学 2008,41(6):1673-1683 Scientia Agricultura Sinica doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2008.06.014 应用相似离度法预测红火蚁在中国适生区域及其入侵概率 沈文君，王雅男，万方浩 （中国农业科学院植物保护研究所/植物病虫害生物学国家重点实验室，北京 100094 ） 摘要：【目的】依据气候相似理论，采用相似离度法预测红火蚁在中国的适生区域及其入侵概率。【方法】收 集红火蚁在世界范围的分布数据和国内外气候站点的气候数据，建立红火蚁原产地和严重发生地气候站点集合， 采用相似离度法找到与气候站点集合最相似的地区。在气候因素影响下，相似程度相对百分比认为是红火蚁入侵 中国政区和气候区的概率值，并且建立了预警级别。【结果】预测结果表明，香港、澳门、广东、广西的入侵概率 均大于 80%，处于红色警报区；安徽、江苏、上海、江西、浙江、福建、台湾、贵州、云南、海南的入侵概率在 50%～80%，处于橙色警报区，其它地区均处于黄色警戒区和绿色小风险区。【结论】红、橙警报区需要采取适当的 防控措施，川渝地区和云南东南部的气候与原产地气候较为相似，尽管目前尚未发现有红火蚁入侵，但由于红火 蚁对气候具有很强的适应性，因此也应该采取相应的预防措施。此外，相似离度法尽管多用于气象研究领域，但 在预测外来物种分布范围时也起到了良好的辅助效果。 关键词：外来入侵物种；红火蚁；相似离度；气候相似理论；适生区域；入侵概率；预警级别 Application of Analogy Deviation to Predict Potential Distribution of Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and Its Invasion Probability in China SHEN Wen-jun, WANG Ya-nan, WAN Fang-hao (The State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests/Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100094) Abstract: 【Objective 】The aim of the study was to apply analogy deviation to predict potential distribution of Solenopsis invicta Buren and its invasion probability in China. 【Method 】Distribution data of S. invicta and meteorologic data of weather station in the world were collected, and climatic location sets of native range and seriously occurring range of S. invicta were established . According to the climatic analogy theory, analogy deviation were applied to find the area that climate matching for location sets. The relative percentage of value in analogy deviation is considered as the value of invasion probability, based upon whi