海洋生态经济系统动力学探究.pdfVIP

董占琢等 No.: 0913 海洋生态经济系统动力学研究◆ ★ 董占琢 王洪礼 天津大学机械工程学院，天津 300072 摘要 海洋生态经济系统是社会经济系统的重要组成部分，是社会经济发展的重要基础。海洋生态经济系统非线性动力学模 型的建立及分析，对我国海洋生态经济发展乃至社会经济的发展都具有重要意义。 本文运用现代非线性动力学理论对海洋生态经济系统的动力学特性进行了研究，具体研究工作如下： 1．建立新的海洋生态经济系统动力学模型，该模型考虑了污染和捕捞因素对营养盐—浮游植物—浮游动物系统的影响。 2．研究了模型的稳定性和分岔现象，揭示了该系统的非线性动力学特性。 3．研究模型失稳可能造成的危害，如引发赤潮、鱼类大量死亡、影响人类健康等，总结研究成果的实际意义。 关键词 海洋生态经济系统，非线性，稳定性，分岔 Research on the Dynamics Mechanism of system of Marine eco-economy Dong Zhanzhuo, Wang Hongli The school of Mechanics, Tianjin University , Tianjin 300072, China Abstract The system of marine eco-economic is an important part of society economy system, and supports significant foundation of the economic development. The construction and analyze of the non–linear dynamics mechanism model of marine eco-economic is very meaningful to the development of our country’s marine eco-economic, and even to the development of our country’s society economy. The dynamic properties are studied with modern nonlinear dynamics in this paper. The detailed research work is as follows: 1. a new model of system of marine eco-economic was built. I studied the model to analyze the effect of Pollution and fishing on the nutrient-phytoplankton -zooplankton system. 2. This paper analyze the model’s stabilization. With one parameter changing continually, a bifurcation was observed. To analyze the parameters, we can find the dynamic properties of the nonlinear dynamical model. 3. Studying the potential harm of unst