中国贸易增长的能源环境代价.docVIP

中国贸易增长的能源环境代价 张友国 （中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所） [摘要]本文构造了1987～2006年的可比价格投入产出表，以此为基础测算了贸易对中国能源消耗和SO2排放的影响。结果表明，1987-2006年出口含能量和出口含硫量增长迅速，出口对中国能源消耗和污染排放的影响已不容忽视。由于出口含能量和出口含硫量增长快于相应的进口含污量，因而两者的绝对差距迅速扩大。同时能源和SO2的贸易条件也明显恶化。而出口含能量和出口含硫量之所以快速上升，这主要是出口规模迅速增长带来的规模效应。不过技术变动有效地抑制了上述规模效应。此外，结构效应很小，这意味着中国的出口结构变化对能耗和SO2排放的影响不大。 关键词　贸易含污量　环境贸易条件　投入产出模型　RAS　SDA 中图分类号 F 205 文献标示码 A Impact of Trade on China’s Energy Consumption and SO2 Emission: 1987~2006 Abstract: Using input-output methodology, this paper finds that China’s energy and SO2 embodied in export has increased rapidly since 1987. They were about 30% of the energy consumption and SO2 emission caused by the total final demand in China in 2006. While the energy and SO2 embodied in import had maintained at the level of about 20% of the energy consumption and SO2 emission caused by the total final demand in China between 1987 and 2006. Since the energy and pollution embodied in export grew faster than their correspondences embodied in import, the net energy and SO2 embodied in trade expanded quickly. At the same time, their pollution trade term has deteriorated steadily. Structural decomposition shows the rapid change of the energy and SO2 embodied in export was mainly due to the export scale. On the other hand, the technical effect had significantly limited their enlargement. While the structural effect was very little, which means the structure of export had taken little effect on energy consumption and SO2 emission. Key　words: Pollution Embodied in Trade; Ppllution Terms of Trade; Input-output Analysis; RAS; SDA 引 言 自改革开放以来，随着对外贸易不断增长，中国早已成为公认的“世界工厂”。尤其是加入WTO以来，中国的贸易增长十分迅速。而与此同时，中国的资源消耗和环境污染状况也不断加剧。正因为如此，人们很自然地将快速增长的贸易与近年来中国的能耗和环境污染状况联系起来，认为贸易的扩张是中国节能和环境污染状况难以有效改善的一大原因。 那么贸易对中国能耗和污染排放的贡献到底有多大？改革开放以来贸易对中国能耗和相关环境的影响发生了怎样的变化？这些变化主要是贸易的规模扩张、贸易部门的技术变化还是贸易产品的结构变化带来的？应当如何看待和应对贸易对中国能耗和相关环境造成的影响？弄清楚这些问题对于相关政策制定者、研究者客观认识贸易对中国能耗和环境的影响，并制定相关的政策措施有着重要的参考价值。而这些正是本文要解决的问题。 从国际上看，对贸易所造成的环境影响进行测度的研究始于20世纪90年代。Lee 和Roland-Holst（1993）提出