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Significantportionsoftheestimatedbenefitsattributed：据估计，效益显著的部分原因.doc

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The Health Impacts of Air Pollution on the Near Elderly: A Preliminary Assessment* Mary F. Evans Center for Environmental and Resource Economic Policy Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics 4223 Nelson Hall, Campus Box 8109 North Carolina State University Raleigh, NC 27695-8109 mary_evans@ncsu.edu and V. Kerry Smith Center for Environmental and Resource Economic Policy Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics 4223 Nelson Hall, Campus Box 8109 North Carolina State University Raleigh, NC 27695-8109 kerry_smith@ncsu.edu July 9, 2002 1. Introduction Reductions in premature mortality of the near elderly (i.e., adults 55 years of age or older) account for over eighty percent of the estimated annual benefits attributed to continuing the restrictions implied by the Clean Air Act for the criteria air pollutants (EPA, [1999]). EPA’s assessment suggests that mortality rates are unlikely to decline in the same year as reductions in air pollution exposure. However, the specific lag structures for the health effects are not well understood. The logic underlying the evaluation of health effects stems from an exposure analysis that links air pollution to classes of impacts. While the analysis recognizes that some of the pollutants have cumulative effects, much of the assessment relies on models that treat the effects as contemporaneous. The timing of effects is especially important for premature mortality. One would expect to observe less serious health effects as precursors to the observed deaths. Indeed the onset of illnesses related to the more serious health outcomes attributed to air pollution offers an early signal that the implicit mechanisms should be taken seriously. The primary conditions related to air pollution involve heart and lung functions, thus one should expect to observe variations in health outcomes related to cardiovascular and respiratory systems with differences in air pollution before observing increased deaths from these causes