证券市场群体心理变化探析.pdfVIP

摘 要 一直以来，证券市场的技术分析主要是针对市场客体的 基本面分析和技术分析。而对证券市场的主体人的行为很少 研究，尤其是导致这些行为背后的投资群体的心理变化。 随着行为经济学、金融心理学的研究发展，心理分析逐 步被引入了证券市场分析中来，但是还比较散、比较乱。 本文主要是通过技术分析方法和心理分析方法的对比， 来揭示两者的不足。并结合上证指数在 2005 年 5 月至 2008 年 11 月的图形变化，重点分析了道氏理论、波浪理论和金 融心理学关于吸筹派发模型。 通过分析，对这些理论中的有益的、具有通用性的内容 进行了保留，并试图结合群体心理研究，把技术分析和心理 分析完美的结合起来。使得技术分析有理论支撑基础，心理 分析在证券分析中具体指导意义。 关键词：证券市场；群体心理；技术分析 Abstract As we know, fundamental analysis and technical analysis is the main analysis of the stock exchanges. The two methods focus their eyes on the stock. But I think it is also important of studying the people’s mental changes which expose the cause of the investors’ acts. With the development of psychological research in finance, psychological factors are introduced to the stock analysis, but is still relatively casual, more chaos. This text is mainly through the Comparative Study between technical analysis and psychological analysis to reveal the lack of both. Combined with the Shanghai index in May 2005 -2008 Change in November in the graphics, I have studied the Dow theory, Wave theory and Collection - distribution model. Through analysis of these theories, I find out their similarities and differences. Tying to find common ground of them and integrated into a new theory. Let them bear with each other, this can be better to analyze the stock market. Keywords: Stock market; Community mental; Technical analysis 目 录 导 论1 第一章 证券市场心理分析的发展2 1.1证券市场分析方式概述2 1.2 基本面分析法和价值投资3 1.2.1 基本面分析法3 1.2.2 价值投资3 1.3 技术分析法3