劳动就业对第三产业的促进作用定量研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 随着经济发展,中国的产业结构和劳动就业结构都发生了很大改变。第一 产业产值和就业人数比重下降,第二、三产业产值和就业人数比重基本在持续 上升。由于劳动生产能力的提高,第一产业的发展开始向外排斥劳动力,第二 产业也出现了大量下岗待就业人员,第三产业成为这些劳动力的重要去向。 劳动力对第三产业发展的促进作用,反映了第三产业对劳动力的需求。为 了研究劳动力对第三产业内部各行业的促进作用,本文通过对 2003 年到 2007 年中国 31省市的第三产业内部交通运输与邮电通信、批发零售与餐饮住宿、金 融业、房地产的增加值、就业人数和社会固定资产投入的数据,依据生产函数, 建立面板数据回归模型,分别考察四类行业的劳动力和社会固定投资对产出的 影响模型,得出四类行业中劳动力和固定资产对行业产出的不同作用。并建立 东西部地区的实证分析模型,考察东西部地区第三产业中各行业对劳动力的需 求程度。 实证研究得到第三产业中金融、房地产行业的人才需求比交通运输与邮电 通信、批发零售与餐饮住宿行业更大。就金融、房地产行业而言,东西部地区 对劳动力的需求相当。就交通运输与邮电通信业而言,西部地区劳动力投入的 促进作用明显大于东部地区。就批发零售与餐饮住宿业而言,东部地区劳动力 投入的促进作用则大于西部地区。针对以上情况,本文也给出了相应建议。 关键词:劳动力;就业;第三产业;面板数据模型 3 Abstract Chinese economic structure and employment structure changed a lot with the social development. The proportion and the employment percentage of the primary industry both have dropped markedly, whereas the proportion and the employment percentage of the secondary industry and tertiary industry have increased stably. As a result of the increase of rates of labor-output, the primary industry began to expel workforce, and the secondary brought out many lay-offs. So the tertiary industry is expected to absorb more workforces expelled by the other industriesThe need of labor force for the tertiary industry is reflected by the contribution of labor to the tertiary industry. In order to find out how does the labor impact the tertiary industry, four regression models are built based on panel data of the output, workforces and investment in fixed assets in transport and communication area, wholesale-Retail Trade and hotel-restaurant area, financial sector and real estate sector. In addition, four models are built for eastern and western part of China respectivelyThe result indicate that more manpower are need in the financial sector and real estate sector than the transport-communication area and wholesale-Retail Trade together with hotel-restaurant area. For the financial sector and real estate sector, the labor forces are more important in the eastern part of Chi